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<\/p>\nWe’ve been burned so many times making predictions about COVID-19 that I should post this conspicuously by my computer:<\/p>\n
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The famous pundit<\/a> meant, of course, that “you don’t know anything<\/em>” — we know his true intentions since he also said “Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded.”<\/p>\n The “know nothing” quotation is a reminder that COVID-19 is a new disease. While we do in fact know more than nothing, we still have so much<\/em> to learn.\u00a0This applies to pretty much the whole COVID-19 universe, including its origins, virology, immunology, epidemiology, prevention, clinical manifestations, diagnosis, treatment, and complications. Constantly learning, constantly updating assumptions, guidelines, and messages.<\/p>\n With that humble start, I’m about to write a sentence that fills me both with excitement and, I confess, some trepidation.<\/p>\n It looks like Omicron causes less severe disease than prior variants.<\/em><\/p>\n Why trepidation? Well obviously I don’t want to jinx it, we’re still in the midst of a very major surge.<\/p>\n As anyone with a pulse knows, a lot<\/em> of people have been diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past few weeks, more than we’ve seen at any point in the pandemic.<\/p>\n In fact, our world right now is a mess.<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0(I’ve gone back and emphasized this sentence with bolding and italics, as some readers have told me they missed my acknowledging this stark truth.) Some have a mild or asymptomatic case, but some are miserably ill, recuperating at home. A smaller number are hospitalized with severe COVID-19, especially the unvaccinated or those with impaired immune systems. Some proportion of all these cases could end up with long COVID, a dreaded complication with still no clear treatment.<\/p>\n Plus, each new diagnosis — regardless of severity — enormously disrupts family, school, work, and social life. What I’m about to write does not in any way to diminish how awful the pandemic is right now for just about everyone.<\/p>\n But looking at the evidence and clinical experience on severity, I’m going to poke the beast and conclude that Omicron\u00a0does<\/em> appear milder.<\/p>\n First, the big picture — we have a record number of cases pretty much everywhere in North America and Europe.<\/p>\n (1) The massive number of infections in European countries is "real". — Edouard Mathieu (@redouad) December 29, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n
Yes, more people got tested for Christmas, and there have been some backlog issues in many countries.
But the 7-day positive rates have been rising rapidly, and nothing indicates that cases are "over-counted". pic.twitter.com\/YFClWuXDYa<\/a><\/p>\n