{"id":3539,"date":"2013-01-01T10:28:05","date_gmt":"2013-01-01T15:28:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/?p=3539"},"modified":"2015-06-04T15:13:33","modified_gmt":"2015-06-04T19:13:33","slug":"hiv-incidence-the-latest-numbers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/hiv-incidence-the-latest-numbers\/2013\/01\/01\/","title":{"rendered":"HIV Incidence: The Latest Numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"

The CDC has recently issued the latest report on HIV incidence<\/a>\u00a0(i.e., new infections) in the United States, and as always it’s fascinating to review the numbers.<\/p>\n

To start, the year-by-year estimated incidence:<\/p>\n

2007: \u00a053,200
\n2008: \u00a047,500
\n2009: \u00a045,000
\n2010: \u00a047,500 (38,000 men, 9,500 women)<\/p>\n

Nope, not much change. Will data from HPTN 052<\/a> — published in the summer of 2011 — eventually have an impact? \u00a0I think so, as the results strongly influenced both treatment guidelines and patients’ willingness to start therapy. A more pessimistic view is that the treatment-as-prevention message from 052 won’t have much of an effect, since data like these<\/a>\u00a0show that only a minority of people with HIV are actually on successful treatment. We’ll see.<\/p>\n

This latest CDC report then highlights two important trends, one good news, one not-so-good:<\/p>\n

The new analysis also finds two noteworthy trends among heavily affected populations: early signs of an encouraging decrease in new HIV infections among black women (21 percent decrease between 2008 and 2010), and a troubling and continuing increase in new infections among young gay and bisexual men (22 percent increase over the same time period).<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In these days of fiscal cliff wrangling, I could use my taxpayer’s prerogative and show you a whole slew of figures — but these three really stand out as giving us a snapshot of who gets HIV in the United States these days:<\/p>\n

1. Incidence in 2010 among various “risk groups” (MSM, men who have sex with men; IDUs, injection drug users):<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

2. Proportion of new infections by transmission category:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

3. Rate of new infections by race, ethnicity, and sex:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The glass-half-full message is that HIV prevention efforts are clearly working, at least to some extent, as the prevalence of HIV — the number living with the virus — continues to increase, yet the incidence stays the same.<\/p>\n

The half-empty view? The continued shift of the epidemic to younger MSM of color will make additional gains difficult, as this is a patient population that could be challenging to reach.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The CDC has recently issued the latest report on HIV incidence\u00a0(i.e., new infections) in the United States, and as always it’s fascinating to review the numbers. To start, the year-by-year estimated incidence: 2007: \u00a053,200 2008: \u00a047,500 2009: \u00a045,000 2010: \u00a047,500 (38,000 men, 9,500 women) Nope, not much change. Will data from HPTN 052 — published […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,5,9,10],"tags":[167,423],"class_list":["post-3539","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-hiv","category-infectious-diseases","category-policy","category-research","tag-cdc","tag-hiv"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3539","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3539"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3539\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3539"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3539"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3539"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}