{"id":5339,"date":"2014-07-31T17:35:14","date_gmt":"2014-07-31T21:35:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/?p=5339"},"modified":"2015-06-04T14:32:14","modified_gmt":"2015-06-04T18:32:14","slug":"simeprevir-sofosbuvir-and-the-limitations-of-the-cosmos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/simeprevir-sofosbuvir-and-the-limitations-of-the-cosmos\/2014\/07\/31\/","title":{"rendered":"Simeprevir, Sofosbuvir, and the Limitations of the COSMOS"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2014\/07\/the-early-cosmos1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-5341\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2014\/07\/the-early-cosmos-300x2401.jpg\" alt=\"the early cosmos\" width=\"300\" height=\"240\" \/><\/a>These are exciting times for hepatitis C treatment, as the approval of simeprevir and sofosbuvir in late 2013 have made curing this disease a whole lot easier.<\/p>\n<p>Since that sentence barely conveys the transformative nature of this medical advance, allow me this tortured analogy: Before simeprevir and sofosbuvir, curing hepatitis C was like making a transatlantic journey by ship, and you had to stay in steerage &#8212; always a long and painful trip, but you\u2019d get there if you could stand it. Now the cure is\u00a0like a business-class flight &#8212; much shorter, safer, and more comfortable, but\u00a0you just have to have the resources to pay for it.<\/p>\n<p>But our treatments are not perfect. I was reminded of this fact when someone treated with simeprevir and sofosbuvir &#8212; or \u201cSIM-SOF\u201d as it&#8217;s commonly abbreviated &#8212; just relapsed a month after finishing 12 glorious, side-effect\u2013free weeks of treatment.<\/p>\n<p>In hindsight you could perhaps have predicted that this patient &#8212; or this type of patient &#8212; would be a\u00a0treatment failure on these new drugs. There was prior treatment failure on interferon\/ribavirin; he has genotype 1a (and hence probably Q80K, didn\u2019t test for it); he\u2019s overweight; he has several other medical problems, including diabetes.<\/p>\n<p>And, probably of greatest importance, he has cirrhosis, diagnosed by liver biopsy several years ago.<\/p>\n<p>The treatment failure sent me scurrying over to the reason we use this combination anyway &#8212; the excellent <a href=\"http:\/\/hcvguidelines.org\/\" target=\"_blank\">HCV treatment guidelines<\/a> and the remarkable <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(14)61036-9\/abstract\" target=\"_blank\">COSMOS study<\/a> (just published in the <em>Lancet<\/em>) of simeprevir and sofosbuvir, with and without ribavirin, in patients with HCV genotype 1.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s what recommended in the guidelines\u00a0for patients <a href=\"http:\/\/www.hcvguidelines.org\/full-report\/retreatment-persons-whom-prior-therapy-has-failed\" target=\"_blank\">who have failed prior treatment:<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px\">Daily sofosbuvir (400 mg) plus simeprevir (150 mg), with or without weight-based RBV (1000 mg [75 kg]) for 12 weeks is recommended for retreatment of HCV genotype 1 infection, regardless of subtype or IFN eligibility.<\/p>\n<p>And here are the relevant data cited:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px\">Among those null responders with a Metavir fibrosis stage of 3 or 4 (n=47) who received 12 weeks of sofosbuvir and simeprevir, SVR4 was observed in 14 (93%) of 15 patients in the ribavirin-containing arm and 100% (all 7 participants) in the RBV-free arm.<\/p>\n<p>A few things stand out from reviewing the study and the guidelines, aside from the high response rate:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The sample size in the COSMOS study\u00a0was small.<\/li>\n<li>The number with actual cirrhosis was even smaller, as they combined stages Metavir 3 and 4.<\/li>\n<li>The number with actual cirrhosis who did not receive ribavirin and received only 12 weeks of treatment was smaller still.<\/li>\n<li>And did I mention &#8212; the sample size in this study was small?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The reason I\u2019m harping on the sample size is a lesson taught early in every Stats 101 course &#8212; namely, that a small sample size means that the outcome will not be very precise, with lots of potential wobble around the results.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.natap.org\/2014\/EASL\/EASL_26.htm\" target=\"_blank\">most recent data presentation<\/a> of the COSMOS study allows us to drill down a bit more on the data. There were 7 patients &#8212; just 7 &#8212; with cirrhosis who received only simeprevir and sofosbuvir for 12 weeks. 6 out 7 were cured (SVR 12), for a response rate of 86%.<\/p>\n<p>And the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval for this proportion? 60%, at least according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mccallum-layton.co.uk\/tools\/statistic-calculators\/confidence-interval-for-proportions-calculator\/\" target=\"_blank\">this web gizmo<\/a> that does the math for us, if I\u2019ve chosen the right \u201cequation\u201d. So the occurrence of relapses should not be a huge surprise, despite the &gt; 90% response rate for the study overall.<\/p>\n<p>Some take-home lessons:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Unlike the real thing, the COSMOS study is very small. (There\u2019s a larger study of this combination ongoing.)<\/li>\n<li>This small sample size means we can\u2019t predict response rates with much accuracy, especially in the hardest to treat patients who were not heavily represented\u00a0in the study.<\/li>\n<li>SIM-SOF (note it\u2019s rarely &#8220;SOF-SIM&#8221;) is still a great advance in HCV treatment, but treatment failures will happen.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So what to do next? The good news is that resistance to sofosbuvir is rare even in treatment failures, and that the HCV treatment cosmos is about to get bigger &#8212; the next class of drugs (NS5A inhibitors) is on the way soon, and the data on sofosbuvir plus <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/full\/10.1056\/NEJMoa1316366\" target=\"_blank\">ledipasvir<\/a>\u00a0or <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/full\/10.1056\/NEJMoa1306218\" target=\"_blank\">daclatasvir<\/a>\u00a0look very promising.<\/p>\n<p>A reason for optimism even for those for\u00a0whom SIM-SOF didn&#8217;t do the trick.<\/p>\n<p><center><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/_erVOAbz420\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/center><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>These are exciting times for hepatitis C treatment, as the approval of simeprevir and sofosbuvir in late 2013 have made curing this disease a whole lot easier. Since that sentence barely conveys the transformative nature of this medical advance, allow me this tortured analogy: Before simeprevir and sofosbuvir, curing hepatitis C was like making a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,5,8,10],"tags":[408,417],"class_list":["post-5339","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-health-care","category-infectious-diseases","category-patient-care","category-research","tag-hcv","tag-hepatitis-c"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5339","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5339"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5339\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5339"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5339"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5339"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}