{"id":8485,"date":"2017-10-01T18:50:33","date_gmt":"2017-10-01T22:50:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/?p=8485"},"modified":"2017-10-01T18:50:33","modified_gmt":"2017-10-01T22:50:33","slug":"several-wrong-predictions-behind-heres-one-got-right","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/several-wrong-predictions-behind-heres-one-got-right\/2017\/10\/01\/","title":{"rendered":"With Several Wrong Predictions Behind Me, Here&#8217;s One I Got Right"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>As I&#8217;ve mentioned before, I&#8217;ve been wrong on several predictions that ultimately came to pass.<\/p>\n<p>Whoppingly wrong.<\/p>\n<p>A partial list:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Cameras in cellphones are a short-lived gimmick.\u00a0<\/strong>My kids still tease me about that one.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Buying clothing &#8212; and especially shoes &#8212; on the internet will never catch on. <\/strong>C&#8217;mon, you can&#8217;t try things on! How do you know if they fit?<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.boxofficemojo.com\/alltime\/world\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Avatar<\/em><\/a>\u00a0will be a huge bomb.<\/strong> Great special effects, but it cost over $200 million to make, has a silly story, and shallow characters. Who will pay to see that?<\/li>\n<li><strong>A certain loud-mouthed businessman with a bad comb-over will never become President. <\/strong>Enough said.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>However, when I wrote this summer that we might be\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/reached-end-hcv-drug-development\/2017\/08\/06\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">at the end of HCV drug development<\/a>, it turned out to be pretty spot-on.<\/p>\n<p>Since then, two companies have ended their HCV drug development programs, one in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.janssen.com\/janssen-discontinue-hepatitis-c-development-program\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">early September<\/a>, then another\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.mrknewsroom.com\/news-release\/corporate-news\/merck-discontinues-mk-3682b-and-mk-3682c-development-programs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">last week<\/a>. You can read more about the business reasons <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fiercepharma.com\/marketing\/as-merck-cans-another-hep-c-project-can-leader-gilead-capitalize\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a>, but the simple medical reason is that it would be an enormous challenge to improve on what we have now &#8212; which is good news for our patients, provided remaining access issues can be resolved.<\/p>\n<p>And by 2027, all of us will be traveling cross country on Segways.<\/p>\n<p>You read it here first.<\/p>\n<p>[youtube https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=M3BeAu1pjIc]<\/p>\n<p><em>(Stick around for the surprise ending in Coney Island.)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/secure.jwatch.org\/registerm?cpc=JWATCH&amp;promo=OJFOBLOG&amp;step=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-925\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2017\/03\/hivJWAd540x250.jpg\" alt=\"Register Now for more NEJM Journal Watch Content\" width=\"540\" height=\"250\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As I&#8217;ve mentioned before, I&#8217;ve been wrong on several predictions that ultimately came to pass. Whoppingly wrong. A partial list: Cameras in cellphones are a short-lived gimmick.\u00a0My kids still tease me about that one. Buying clothing &#8212; and especially shoes &#8212; on the internet will never catch on. C&#8217;mon, you can&#8217;t try things on! How [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[408,417],"class_list":["post-8485","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-health-care","tag-hcv","tag-hepatitis-c"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8485","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8485"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8485\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8485"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8485"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8485"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}