{"id":9930,"date":"2020-12-20T13:43:42","date_gmt":"2020-12-20T18:43:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/?p=9930"},"modified":"2020-12-21T15:58:40","modified_gmt":"2020-12-21T20:58:40","slug":"with-vaccine-rollout-a-mixture-of-gratitude-envy-and-cautious-hope","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/with-vaccine-rollout-a-mixture-of-gratitude-envy-and-cautious-hope\/2020\/12\/20\/","title":{"rendered":"With Vaccine Rollout, a Mixture of Gratitude, Envy, and Cautious Hope"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/Screen-Shot-2020-12-20-at-2.01.21-PM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-9941\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/Screen-Shot-2020-12-20-at-2.01.21-PM-243x300.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"243\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/Screen-Shot-2020-12-20-at-2.01.21-PM-243x300.png 243w, https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/Screen-Shot-2020-12-20-at-2.01.21-PM.png 595w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 243px) 100vw, 243px\" \/><\/a>I. Gratitude<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Did I think we&#8217;d have two vaccines for COVID-19 available for distribution before 2021? Two vaccines with 95% efficacy in preventing disease, and nearly 100% in preventing <em>severe<\/em> disease? Vaccines that work across different patient populations, including the most vulnerable &#8212; especially older people?<\/p>\n<p>Not a chance. I&#8217;ve probably been quoted half a dozen times saying that we likely wouldn&#8217;t be seeing vaccines before next year. Some &#8220;expert,&#8221; ha.<\/p>\n<p>And yet, here we are. In this interview yesterday, you can <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wbur.org\/news\/2020\/12\/19\/moderna-vaccine-joins-fight-against-pandemic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">clearly hear the excitement in my voice<\/a> as I discuss the second emergency use authorization for the Moderna vaccine. Giddy.<\/p>\n<p>Yes, it&#8217;s time to celebrate, to shed tears of joy when receiving the vaccine, to display happily the image of a bare biceps and the injection taking place, both vaccinator and vaccinated clearly smiling beneath the masks.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s even time to dance!<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/JournalsDance\/status\/1339875341628821506?s=20<\/p>\n<p><strong>II. Envy<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Several friends and family members have asked &#8212; have you received your COVID-19 vaccine?<\/p>\n<p>Answer:\u00a0 Not yet.<\/p>\n<p>Can&#8217;t blame them for asking &#8212; I&#8217;m an ID doctor, after all, and finished a rotation of inpatient service just before Thanksgiving, and am about to start another over the the Christmas holidays. Most of us have been working solidly since March, no encampment to our country estates.<\/p>\n<p>They might also ask after my wife, a primary care pediatrician who sees sniffly and coughing kids every day in her office practice, kids accompanied by their parents &#8212; many of them young adults at high risk for community acquisition of COVID-19.<\/p>\n<p>Not yet for her, either.<\/p>\n<p>The harsh reality is that there&#8217;s not yet enough vaccine to go around. Not even close.<\/p>\n<p>In my hospital system, the overwhelming volume to sign-up for &#8220;Wave 1&#8221; of vaccine administration (of which I&#8217;m a part), initially <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2020\/12\/17\/metro\/pent-up-demand-coronavirus-vaccine-crashes-mass-general-brighams-system\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">caused the process to crash<\/a>. It then reopened for approximately 15 minutes before the schedule filled. The supply is limited due to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/12\/19\/world\/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-delivery-problems.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">distribution issues beyond the hospital&#8217;s control<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Some did successfully sign up, but the first-come, first-served nature of the process allowed people to time their participation &#8212; you can be sure many set their phone alarms to go off at the precise moment the schedule came online again. Perhaps this process excluded those working the hardest, with<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/eemoin\/status\/1339706722865147904?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> the irony of this disconnect not lost on some<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>But problems notwithstanding, I (and others in this first wave) likely will get the vaccine soon &#8212; I&#8217;m optimistic since with this second vaccine&#8217;s authorization, our hospital system&#8217;s supply should increase quickly.<\/p>\n<p>My wife can&#8217;t be so certain. She and her partners own their practice, and their primary hospital does not have enough vaccines for affiliated primary care pediatricians or their staff.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, thousands of doctors (including several of our friends), nurses, respiratory therapists, and other frontline workers around the country have been vaccinated. Hooray! Plus, notably, some politicians <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SenWarren\/status\/1340358854400503808?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">blue<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/marcorubio\/status\/1340313659034267649?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">red<\/a> &#8212; even <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNN\/status\/1340318450527432704?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Santa Claus<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Good for them. We&#8217;re <em>happy<\/em> for them.<\/p>\n<p>But we&#8217;re envious, too. And if we feel this way, imagine how the broader public feels &#8212; those sequestered away the last 9 months, tired of the isolation, many older and at risk for severe COVID-19 and terrified. No accurate timeline for their vaccines. No wonder <a href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2020-12-18\/wealthy-patients-scramble-covid-19-vaccine\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">people are trying to jump the queue<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>And yes, it&#8217;s hard to see those vaccine selfies, ouch.<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrSandman11\/status\/1339565524213182464?s=20<\/p>\n<p><strong>III. Cautious Hope<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Hard to be hopeful right now. Cases continue to increase across the United States &#8212; now <a href=\"https:\/\/91-divoc.com\/pages\/covid-visualization\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">well more than 200,000 a day<\/a>, with our country&#8217;s cumulative death toll over 300,000.<\/p>\n<p>And unlike earlier surges, which targeted different regions at different times, this time it&#8217;s <em>everywhere. <\/em><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">For the first time. <br \/>All red USA, now including Hawaii, for out of control covid.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/BpmBybV8U5\">https:\/\/t.co\/BpmBybV8U5<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Zyt8Uiaeq8\">pic.twitter.com\/Zyt8Uiaeq8<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Eric Topol (@EricTopol) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/EricTopol\/status\/1339356649048297474?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 16, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Public policies may be different from earlier surges &#8212; no extreme shutdowns &#8212; but that doesn&#8217;t mean things are safe, which is why so many <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vogue.com\/article\/this-coronavirus-pandemic-is-not-over-dont-act-like-it-is\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">caution against large holiday gatherings<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>With these discouraging facts before us, how can we have any hope?<\/p>\n<p>First, we have these two amazing vaccines cited above. An additional promising candidate &#8212; the Johnson &amp; Johnson vaccine &#8212; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2020\/12\/14\/more-vaccine-developers-fda-approval-445194\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">has completed enrollment, with results expected in January<\/a>. That vaccine requires only one dose and has way less stringent cold storage requirements. The AstraZeneca\/Oxford vaccine is on a similar timeline for availability, provided there are no further safety or efficacy setbacks.<\/p>\n<p>Second, after months of logjams, rapid home testing for COVID-19 quietly advances. Two such tests have recently garnered approval &#8212; the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fda.gov\/news-events\/press-announcements\/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-antigen-test-first-over-counter-fully-home-diagnostic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Ellume<\/a> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/abbott.mediaroom.com\/2020-12-16-Abbotts-BinaxNOW-COVID-19-Rapid-Test-Receives-FDA-Emergency-Use-Authorization-for-First-Virtually-Guided-At-Home-Rapid-Test-Using-eMeds-Digital-Health-Platform\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">BinaxNOW<\/a>; others are in the works, and I increasingly hear people broadly supporting &#8220;flooding the market&#8221; with these tests. Here&#8217;s a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rapidtests.org\/expert-letter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">letter sent to Congress<\/a> summarizing why we need them, and how to get them approved and supported.<\/p>\n<p>Because if people are going to get together &#8212; and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/ideas\/archive\/2020\/12\/tis-the-season-for-shame-and-judgment\/617335\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">they will<\/a> &#8212; some testing is better than no testing, and lots of frequent testing is better yet.<\/p>\n<p>Could we envision socializing safely with friends and family by the early spring, all of us recently vaccinated, and having a negative home test as a safeguard? And schools opening in the fall in ways that seem somewhat normal? Absolutely.<\/p>\n<p>Third, starting early this week, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.timeanddate.com\/astronomy\/@z-us-02115\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the days start getting longer<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/Screen-Shot-2020-12-20-at-9.41.22-AM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-9935\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/Screen-Shot-2020-12-20-at-9.41.22-AM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"371\" height=\"233\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/Screen-Shot-2020-12-20-at-9.41.22-AM.png 432w, https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/Screen-Shot-2020-12-20-at-9.41.22-AM-300x188.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 371px) 100vw, 371px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>See, was that so hard?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I. Gratitude Did I think we&#8217;d have two vaccines for COVID-19 available for distribution before 2021? Two vaccines with 95% efficacy in preventing disease, and nearly 100% in preventing severe disease? Vaccines that work across different patient populations, including the most vulnerable &#8212; especially older people? Not a chance. I&#8217;ve probably been quoted half a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,5],"tags":[4601],"class_list":["post-9930","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-health-care","category-infectious-diseases","tag-covid-19"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9930","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9930"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9930\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9930"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9930"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.nejm.org\/hiv-id-observations\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9930"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}